Prediction - In 5 Years, Git Will No Longer Be the Only Dominant Form of SCM

Prediction Date - 1 Nov 2024 / End Date - 1 Nov 2029

Git was an amazing SCM (Source Control Management) compared to what other tools were when it was released. But the world has changed and git in its current form has not kept up with it.

Big Tech already uses stacked diffs as the primary way of shipping software. And I see no reason why the rest of the world won't use it. The gravity of Github has kept it as the blackhole of SCM. But Git is frustrating and has plenty of rough spots. PR based workflows are now long in the tooth and it shows, its easy to "foot-gun" using git.

It's data model does not scale and even though it "distributed" version control, all the workflows in 2024 are designed around a centralized server.

There are better ways to do this. And there are already a few contestants building up. In 2024, my bet is on Sapling, but I am not so sure about which ones will emerge as the winners. Diversion is another one.

My hunch that we will have multiple systems competing and the hegemony of git will be waning. Git will still be in widespread use, but SCMs will have multiple mainstream products to choose from just like current set of programming languages.