Prediction - Self Driving Cars Will Win In 5 Years

Prediction Date - 30 Sep 2024 / End Date - 30 Sep 2029

By winning I mean they will become the normal way of commuting and not a novelty like today. Wherever the service is available, people will use it as part of their daily routine. Self driving cars will be used in all Tier 1/ Tier 2 cities in the west.

This prediction is a no brainer for whoever has tried a ride in Waymo or its equivalent.

There are currently the following companies that have the potential to be among the set of multiple winners - Tesla, Waymo, Zoox, Cruise. The dark horse in the race is - comma.ai but I am not sure how that one will pan out.

In 2029, the future of the world transitioning to "self driving first" will be obvious and not debated.

Admittedly this is hazy and subjective to assess but I cannot predict what % of market self driving cars will have captured by then. I do not have enough knowledge about the car industry to comment on it.

Note that this prediction only applies to USA and to western developed nations. I do not have a timeline on when this will be applicable in other parts of the world. It will happen everywhere eventually, but not in the next 5 years.

Learning to manually drive your car will be akin to learning to ride a horse. Niche. Done by a few people for fun.

Anyone aged 8 or below in 2024 will never have to learn to drive a car as a core life skill.